A mom evaluates the ROI of tennis for her child

Lisa is a 38 year old stay-at-home mom living with her 5 year old son, husband, and their Aussie berniedoodle in Houston, Texas.

Lisa’s mom friends have already (!) started introducing their children to sports. Lisa also knows a full extracurricular resume is important for college applications.

Lisa and her husband Bill are unfamiliar with the world of junior sports but are intrigued by the perks they’ve heard for a young competitive athlete: athletic scholarships, learning to fail early in life, work ethic, and staying fit.

Lisa and Bill love playing recreational tennis. They’re curious to understand the financial investment of a full junior tennis training program against the probability of an athletic scholarship at a DI school.

Yes, becoming a top NCAA athlete is not guaranteed through the right training. Hand-eye coordination ability, grit and personality, raw talent, probability of burnout, probability of injury -- these are all attributes that can't be taught or predicted with certainty.

So let's quantify that uncertainty, too!

In this case study, I’ve itemized the costs to training a junior athlete at the elite level (for the purposes of an athletic NCAA scholarship). I've added probabilities of potential scenarios to help Lisa and Bill identify the range of outcomes.

Assumptions

Tennis Investment

• Tennis costs will vary based on individual vs group training, level, and age. As the child develops and/or grows more competitive, tournaments will require further travel and better coaches will command higher rates.

• After reaching a certain ranking, the child may start earning scholarships to junior tennis academies and from equipment manufacturers - neither of which have been assumed in this analysis.

• I’ve researched current (2022) rates for tennis training, travel, and tournaments from Houston, Texas academies and current USTA (United States Tennis Association) tournament schedules.

Returns (Athletic Scholarship)

• Due to Lisa and Bill's parameters, returns evaluate the chances of an NCAA athletic scholarship in the US

• According to Business Insider, the average 4 year tuition is $27k

• According to social psychology studies like this one, former ex-college athletes have better outcomes with jobs and study

• Title IX is a NCAA regulation that ensures equal scholarship spending for men versus women. With colleges allocating significant football scholarships (a male-only NCAA sport), female athletes tend to see larger athletic scholarship amounts on average

• Tennisrecruiting.net is a good resource to see current NCAA commits from the top ranked players and evaluate ranking vs college pick.

Other Assumptions

• 2% inflation

[Watch this video] for a walkthrough of the spreadsheet analysis below.

Note: Formatting in the spreadsheet follows the following standard: black = formula, blue = hardcoded, green = linked from another tab.

Download this spreadsheet

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TheFiguresGirl recommendation for Lisa and Bill

This analysis hopefully helps you think about the expected cost range of a major investment in a sport like tennis.

As with most childcare expenses, the investment of competitive junior sports isn’t a positive ROI from the finances alone.

Some families also claim the intense pursuit of competitive sports is a source of stress and take a toll on family dynamics.

Positive ROI might come from knowing a parent is doing what they can to set their child up for success. For example, excelling in a sport at a young age helps a kid acquire soft skills like determination, work ethic, confidence, valuing physical fitness.

If Lisa and Bill know they want to double down on some extracurricular activity for their son, I’d recommend comparing the opportunity cost here.

Perhaps a next step would be to compare the ROI of an individual sport like tennis to a team sport like soccer (possibly more group vs individual lessons are more affordable?). or non-sport activities like computer science or music or chess lessons.

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Are you wondering which sport you and your child should invest in to optimize for future returns? Feel free to download the spreadsheet, edit the assumptions (blue font cells), and make any other adjustments to fit your own situation!